Nouvelles des groupes
- Détails
- Publié par : Terry Wishart
- Affichages : 19905
[In response to Shale Study Finds Opportunities for NB and report comissioned by the New Brunswick Business Council: nbbc-cenb.ca/en/blog/shale-study-finds-opportunities-for-nb]
Fredericton NB - The communications committee for the alliance of community groups opposed to shale gas asked Jim Emberger for a first response to the NB Business Council Report on Shale Gas.
Jim Emberger, a resident of Taymouth NB and a retired software developer says: “The most striking point is that this report proves that if you pay a consulting firm they will produce a positive report for you regardless of how weak and conditional the conclusions are. “
"Below are my first comments to the questionnaire that was used, the supporting data they used, the conclusions that were drawn, and their review of current regulations and their lack of assessment of costs incurred by road damage” Mr. Emberger continues.
On the questionnaire and subsequent conclusions:
Right off the bat, there was a response rate on their questionnaire of 16% and they calculate the report has an 11% margin of error on those few points where the report can even make a comment, because of the small response rate. I’m not a pollster or statistician, but I wouldn’t want to bet the farm on that foundation.
On the supporting data:
The report uses some outdated data to support some of its statements. On the outlook of unproven technically recoverable gas, it cites a 2010 EIA report showing 1,931 trillion cubic feet in North America – the source of the famous 100 years of natural gas comment. However, the EIA recently revised that figure downward by 42% in the US, meaning at best a 24-year supply.
I don’t have figures on Canada itself, but it is undoubtedly similar. The revisions mirror the actual production figures recently calculated for 65,000 shale wells by Canadian energy analyst David Hughes (Drill, Baby, Drill Can Unconventional Fuels Usher in a New Era of Energy Abundance – David Hughes, 2/13)
The real life accounting of wells by David Hughes, (also Deborah Rogers and Art Berman and others) show that existing shale plays peak in about 4 years on average, with individual wells depleting by 79% to 95% in three years. Entire plays deplete at an annual average of 30% to 50%. So despite drilling thousands of new wells, terminal decline starts rather quickly and it is inconceivable that shale plays will last anywhere near the 6-25 years mentioned in the report. Remember that shale gas is barely a decade old, and that the figures used for longevity are based on conventional gas wells. Virtually all plays older than 5 years are in decline.
The report also cites consulting firm IHS CERA for predictions about how much royalty money will flow by the year 2030. Unfortunately, IHS CERA has one of the worst records of long term predictions anywhere. It’s long term predictions for oil from their reports of the early 2000’s stated that oil production would soar to millions of more barrels a day, and that we would now be paying between $30 and $40 a barrel. Instead, the price has been $100 a barrel or more for many years, and supply has not increased since 2005.
The use of GDP as a measure of benefits is flawed as things like road repair, environmental clean-up and legal action would all increase GDP, while actually illustrating negative consequences for NB citizens.
The Conclusions:
The figures for Full time equivalent jobs (FTE) per well based on a One Well model can be misinterpreted. One cannot simply take the figure of 21.5 FTE jobs per well and multiply it by the number of wells to get how many people will be employed. Most jobs are portable, meaning that a few drilling crews go from well to well, thus not increasing the number of employees, only the FTE statistics.
Since they did not explain the one-well model in the paper, I may have misinterpreted it, but it is something that the press should question.
The report also supports our contention that except for a few geologist type jobs, most jobs for NB’ers would be truck driving and security type jobs.
The conclusions note that gas companies have many existing relationships with existing suppliers and trained employees. This confirms what we have been saying about the benefits to NB.
Regulatory review:
They compared NB to BC, Alberta, Colorado and Arkansas. First, BC and Alberta’s gas plays are in the boondocks generally – many miles from anywhere. Alberta, as noted by the report, is new to shale and is only now addressing new regulations for it. For example, they do not currently require testing of water wells for a frack.
Arkansas, one of the first shale plays, has been playing catch-up, as production started with few regs. Correspondents from there have told us to stop shale before it starts, because regulations always lag damages.
Colorado – the only long-term health study from the Univ. of Colorado showed the states regs to be inadequate to protecting public health. As extraction moves into populated areas, friction between local governments and state government is increasing.
Geologically, none of these areas resemble NB. Pennsylvania is probably the closest analogue, but was not considered. The main point continues to be that all those areas continue to have widespread problems despite a variety of regs.
Road repair paid for by companies?
It is interesting to note that the report claims the cost estimate for road damage cannot be determined yet, but that the government regulations “contemplate” that companies will be responsible for these costs. We haven’t found any direct reference to this in the new government rules. Furthermore, shale oil and gas income from royalties have been shown in other jurisdictions to be way less than the costs incurred by accompanying road damage.
For example, since 2009, Arkansas has taken in approximately $182M in royalties but estimates its road damage from drilling to be $450M. This is not surprising, as it takes over 1,000 loaded trucks to bring one gas well into production, plus 350 loaded trucks per year formaintenance, and another 1,000 loaded trucks for each additional frack.
-30-
- Détails
- Publié par : Tashina Thomas
- Affichages : 9210
La décennie des Nations Unies pour l’éducation en vue du développement durable (ÉDD) se terminera l’année prochaine. Qu’avons-nous accompli au Canada pour soutenir cette décennie? Quels défis avons-nous affrontés? Et vers quoi dirigeons-nous? Ce sont les questions qui ont encadré les discussions de l’atelier national sur l’ÉDD à laquelle j’ai participé récemment à la réunion annuelle de la commission canadienne de l’UNESCO. En général, l’atelier a permis des discussions intéressantes bien qu’à mon avis ce fut un peu trop d’écoutes de nos propres propos et pas assez d’actions concrètes.
Peut-être parmi les commentaires des plus aptes à susciter la réflexion que j’ai entendue concernaient les meilleures définitions de l’ÉDD, souvent appelée éducation à la viabilité ici au NB. La voici : l’ÉDD consiste à trouver le type d’avenir que nous souhaitons et puis à préparer les gens avec les compétences, les connaissances et les valeurs dont ils auront besoin pour faire de ce futur une réalité.
L’atelier m’a aidé à réfléchir aux diverses initiatives en ÉDD au Nouveau-Brunswick par rapport aux priorités internationales et celles des autres provinces. L’UNESCO a préparé trois priorités pour ÉDD internationale; celles-ci ont été adoptées au Manitoba. Devrions-nous au Nouveau-Brunswick nous concentrer aussi sur ces mêmes priorités? Ces priorités sont les suivantes :
- Dans toutes les écoles un plan en ÉDD ou sur la viabilité d’ici 2015;
- Les facultés d’éducation incorporent l’ÉDD dans leurs programmes d’éducations des enseignants; et
- La formation professionnelle (p. e. dans les collèges communautaires) réoriente sa programmation pour nous aider à transformer notre « économie brune » en « économie verte ».
Des recherches entreprises dans plusieurs pays pourraient aider notre cause dans la province. Nous, « les convaincus » savons que l’ÉDD améliore la qualité de l’éducation. Toutefois, des recherches sont nécessaires pour convaincre les « non-croyants ». Ces recherchent sont entreprises par un certain nombre de pays qui travaillent en collaboration pour explorer les liens entre l’ÉDD et la qualité de l’éducation et pour trouver des données qualitatives et quantitatives pour démontrer cette relations.
Vingt-neuf représentants d’organisations canadiennes ont participé à cet atelier. Le rapport officiel se trouve ici.
- Détails
- Publié par : Tashina Thomas
- Affichages : 7992
Saviez-vous que la classe moyenne va passer de 25 % à 50 % de la population mondiale d’ici 2030? Cette statistique a été présentée par un des principaux conférenciers de l’AGA de la Commission canadienne de l’UNESCO à laquelle j’ai assisté récemment. Si elle se réalise, ses conséquences sont vraiment stupéfiantes. Plusieurs gouvernements nationaux qui représentent maintenant principalement des personnes pauvres vont donc bientôt représenter principalement des personnes de la classe moyenne, soit des personnes dont les besoins de base sont satisfaits et qui peuvent s’intéresser à des enjeux plus larges comme la durabilité environnementale et la justice sociale. Notre monde serait-il sur le point de s'améliorer?
Par contre, qu’arrivera-t-il aux gouvernements qui représentent maintenant principalement des citoyens de la classe moyenne? Si l’on se fie au contexte canadien, il semblerait plutôt que les préoccupations des gens pour l’environnement et les questions sociales n’inquiètent nullement nos politiciens.
- Détails
- Publié par : Tashina Thomas
- Affichages : 7914
Une récente étude de l’UNB a trouvé que, selon les prédictions climatiques, nous pouvons nous attendre à des changements partout au Nouveau-Brunswick. Les chercheurs ont questionné plus de 40 climatologues, biologistes et autres scientifiques du Nouveau-Brunswick sur les changements écologiques qu’ils prévoient dans la province entre 2050 et 2100. « Les écosystèmes terrestres et d’eaux douces seront considérablement affectés puisque les changements climatiques influencent directement ou indirectement les paramètres écologiques qui révèlent des limites ou des conditions favorables pour des organismes spécifiques, » dévoile le rapport. Les changements attendus incluent le dépérissement des sapins et des épinettes blanches, une augmentation des chênes rouges et des épinettes rouges. De la même façon, les lynx perdront leur compétition avec les lynx roux, mais les chevreuils ne seront pas affectés. Les nombres des saumons de l’Atlantique et des truites diminueront. Les auteurs de l’étude sont Tom Beckly, Arielle DeMerchant et Shawn Dalton.
Est-ce que les changements climatiques ont commencé? Ce mois-ci l’U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration a annoncé que le dioxyde de carbone dans l’atmosphère à l’Observatoire de Mauna Loa avait atteint 400 parties par million (ppm); aux fins de comparaison, avant la révolution industrielle les niveaux s’élevaient à 280 ppm. Consultez le graphique animé qui démontre l’augmentation des désastres.
En Arctique, les fissures dans la glace augmentent et selon Paul Beckwith du Club Sierra, la couverture de glace disparaitra dans 6 à 30 mois.
Pour ceux qui « tentent de faire quelque chose », le rapport du Trottier Energy Futures Project qui passe en revue les recherches sur l’énergie à basse teneur en carbone dans 8 pays, on démontre que le Canada pourrait réaliser des réductions de 80 % de son utilisation des carburants fossiles d’ici 2050 avec un boum des technologies énergétiques propres.
Et puis, le rapport comprend des lettres intéressantes. Dan Harvey de l’université de Toronto a publié un article avec un titre révélateur, « Oubliez les pipelines – le Canada doit se préparer pour le monde après carbone. » Douze scientifiques du climat ont fait parvenir une lettre au ministre des Richesses naturelles Joe Oliver pour éveiller son attention aux dangers d’accroitre les infrastructures des carburants fossiles au Canada. Et Joe leur a répondu.
Il semble que cet enjeu devient de plus en plus à la page. Tenez-vous au courant.
- Détails
- Publié par : Sam Arnold
- Affichages : 41625
Published in the Telegraph Journal April 29, 2013
Original title “Our Energy Dilemma.”
Title below used by the editor
Why Extreme Energy Won’t Last
Keith Helmuth
The historical facts of our energy situation are clear. Since the early days of the 20th Century the development of modern societies has been based on a huge injection of hydrocarbon energy. This sudden and unusual injection of energy must realistically be understood as a temporary subsidy.
At the beginning of this hydrocarbon era, large deposits of oil and natural gas were easily accessible. The energy return on energy investment for early oil wells was often 100 to 1. This means 100 barrels of oil could be extracted using the energy of only l barrel of oil.
This ratio steadily dropped as the deposits of easily accessible oil were depleted. In recent years the ratio has plummeted. Increasing amounts of energy are required to produce new oil as it becomes harder and harder to extract from deeper, less accessible, and lower quality deposits. The ratio is now down to approximately 18 to 1 worldwide. The ratio for North America is down to 15 to l. Alberta oil sands extraction is down to 5 to 1, and perhaps much lower; some calculations put it at 1 to 1.
This rapidly declining ratio of energy return on energy invested is the fundamental reality of our energy situation. Energy science analysts and biophysical economists now calculate that 5 to 1 is about as low as the ratio can go before oil extraction is no longer a profitable investment. At 3 to 1 they calculate the oil industry will come to a stand still. Energy corporations will no longer be able to earn a profit and investment will stop. This is simply the logic of our economic system.
There is no obvious work-around for this future energy scenario. There is simply nothing in the energy picture that can replace the oil subsidy on which our society now runs. As this subsidy is depleted and becomes economically inaccessible, the whole energy basis of our society will change. The big question is, change to what?
Meanwhile, the push is on to forestall the sunset of the hydrocarbon economy by moving to extreme energy. Extreme energy is defined by the extraordinary measures required for its extraction compared to conventional energy. These measures include deep-ocean drilling, drilling in remote sites such the Arctic, surface mining of tar and oil sands, and horizontal hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of deep shale formations. This extreme energy extraction includes both oil and natural gas.
Extreme energy is to conventional energy what extreme sports are to conventional sports. Extreme energy, like extreme sports, involves high risk. Failure is often catastrophic. In extreme sports the individual participant suffers the damage of failure. With extreme energy, however, the damage of failure is suffered by the larger environment, economy, and society.
Extreme energy requires a complexity of technology and a level of risk management that must necessarily become more and more intense as hydrocarbon resources become increasingly difficult to extract. Technology and risk must be pushed to more and more extreme levels in order to keep up the flow of oil required by our current economy.
Some experts in the field now warn that extreme energy systems are being pushed beyond operator capacity for safe and effective management, and significant failures can, therefore, be expected. (See Drilling Down: The Gulf Oil Debacle and Our Energy Dilemma by Joseph A. Tainter and Tadeusz W. Patzek.)
We are currently locked into a rapidly ascending spiral of complexity and risk, that will likely lead to more events like the Deepwater Horizon explosion and the BP Macondo Gulf well blowout. More pipeline failures, more oil and LNG tanker accidents, and more surface and ground water contamination from fracking can be reasonably expected. Evidence is accumulating that fracking can trigger earthquake activity. Fracking and natural gas extraction routinely leak significant amounts of raw methane. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. Habitat and health damage is increasingly associated with extreme energy installations.
The intensity of this extreme energy spiral will continue to mount as we approach the limit of its economic profitability. When energy return on energy investment no longer returns a profit, the spiral will subside, or perhaps collapse. An unforeseen shock to this extremely complex and highly vulnerable energy system could trigger a collapse. Hopefully, we can manage a subsidence, but the possibility of a collapse cannot be dismissed.
Is the path of extreme energy our only way into future? Both the current Government of Canada and the Government of New Brunswick are acting as if it were. Alberta now has everything riding on the oil sands. A pipeline bringing Alberta crude to the Bay of Fundy is seen as a good way for New Brunswick to cash in on the economy of extreme energy while it lasts.
The current NB Government is fully engaged with the prospect of shale gas fracking and the royalties it hopes to realize, even though the long-term aftermath costs to Government may largely offset, or even wipe out, the royalty gains. Short-term rationality may be trumped by long-term costs, but we don’t know because Government has not done the risk analysis or made the calculations on aftermath costs – costs that will continue long after the last well is pumped dry.
The short-term view on oil and natural gas is easy to understand, but it treats the question of extreme energy as if it was here to stay, and we know for sure it is not. We don’t know how much longer we can depend on it, and we don’t know if we should prepare for a gradual subsidence or a catastrophic collapse. But we do know we better start preparing.
Herbert Stein, a noted economist and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under US presidents Nixon and Ford, once said, “If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.” This bit of folk wisdom has become known as Stein’s Law, and is often expressed as, “Trends that can’t continue, won’t.”
As we launch more and more into the era of extreme energy, Stein’s Law increasingly confronts us. We can run extreme energy right out to the end and then hope for the best, or we can start now to scale back while we still have a cushion that enables us to make different energy plans for the future. The big question is will civic, political, and business leadership raise their sights from making the most of extreme energy in the short-term to making the most of sustainable energy for the long-run?
Keith Helmuth is a member of the Woodstock Sustainable Energy Group
- Détails
- Publié par : Stephanie Merrill
- Affichages : 13513
