Is the Pipeline a “Game Changer?”
by Keith Helmuth
Like a shooting star bursting into the gloom of New Brunswick’s economic life, the prospect of a pipeline bringing Alberta crude to the Irving oil refinery in St. John has caught the attention of political leaders and pundits.
There seems to be a deep conditioning in our culture for pinning our hopes on the coming of a miracle-like economic transformation that will, in the words of Frank McKenna, be a “game changer.”
This is not the first time NB has looked to development of this kind for a great economic boost. The building of the Mactaquac hydroelectric dam was accompanied by the promise that the Saint John Valley would become like the Ruhr Valley in Germany – a site of intense industrial development.
Then the Point Lepreau nuclear plant was sold to the Province in the fading days of the nuclear industry’s promise of producing electricity “too cheap to meter.” It has turned out to be more expensive than any other generating source and has spawned no noticeable spin-off of industrial development.
Then came the first “McKenna miracle” with a great influx of call-centers. But they rose and fell like the passing of the seasons. Then came the Graham government’s dream of a “great energy hub” centred in southern NB that included a second nuclear plant at Point Lepreau to serve the New England market. The market disappeared and so did the dream.
Next up on the roster of “game changers” we have the potential of shale gas, which may or may not be a goose with a golden egg for the Province. It may turn out to be short term gain with long term environmental costs and damaged property values.
And now we have the promise of 6000 construction jobs delivered by the mega-project of pipeline construction for bringing bitumen from Alberta. And then what? When the construction is done, will the workers have to go back to Alberta to help dig up more bitumen until it’s gone? Is this a “game changer” or just another version of the same old game of looking for a mega-project miracle.
Is there a way New Brunswick can develop an economy that is not continually in search of a “game changer?”
Maybe, if we start thinking like Wayne Gretzky. When asked about the secret of his success, he replied, “I skate where the puck is going to be.” If we translate that strategy into thinking about energy, we might get a lead on where a new platform of sustainable economic development could come from.
Historically, every society has been based on a dominant energy resource. Our society is now based on the “miracle” of oil. Petroleum came into the economic life of North America, and then the whole world, like a shooting star, fueling great swaths of technological innovation and virtually miraculous economic growth.
Those of us old enough to have lived through the great transformation of the oil era, know how “miraculous” this energy resource has been. Those born into the high point of its trajectory just think of it as normal, and now, being in charge of the economy, see continuing to maximize its benefits as a rational course of action. But is it?
Like a shooting star, the oil era has a trajectory and it is now bending toward the horizon of depletion. Oil that is now being found through fracking does not reverse this depletion. Oil production worldwide is flat-lining, yet global demand for oil is increasing at almost a million barrels annually. And the faster we collectively burn it, the steeper the curve to depletion.
In this context, a new pipeline is not so much a game changer, as it is part of an endgame for the decline of the oil era. The more we ramp it up, the quicker the era of easy and inexpensive oil will fade. Is this the best way to invest our resources and prepare for a different energy future? It’s time to skate where the next energy “puck” is going to be.
No one disagrees that the next energy future is in renewables, and especially in solar energy. The question is, are we planning to burn all the fossil fuels we can before getting serious about solar and other renewable energy technologies? If so, the term “game changer” takes on an ominous new meaning. Climate scientist, James Hansen, along with others, has calculated the effect of completely exploiting the Alberta oil sands and advises that this source of fossil fuel alone is enough make it “game over for the climate.”
A report just released by the highly respected International Energy Agency has startled everyone by saying that two-thirds of the world’s known fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground if we expect to retain a liveable climate for human civilization. This is a real head shaker.
The “game changer” we need – that the whole world needs – is a shift to renewable energy as rapidly as possible so most of what’s left of earth’s fossil fuel deposits can be remain safely in the ground. This shift is obviously needed at a global level, but the political jurisdictions and the industrial capacity of highly developed regions must take the lead in this transformation – and this includes New Brunswick.
You might ask, but what can we do? For one thing, the NB government could immediately mandate all new public building to not only be energy neutral, but, in so far as possible, be energy producers. There is no mystery about how be to do this. Germany is doing it.
Second, the government could begin a program of retrofitting all public buildings toward energy neutral and energy producing standards. This leadership would begin the build up of renewable energy businesses and increased employment across the Province. This is not flashy development, but it would result in solid, incremental gains that would help move our Province into the renewable energy future, and, in the long term planning perspective, save the government a whack of money on future energy costs.
Third, a no-cost-to-government financing plan for home and business owner conversion to renewable energy could be put in place in every community. Again, this financing innovation has been well developed in other jurisdictions and needs only to be copied and implemented. (Google Energy Financing Districts for further information.) Good, long lasting employment would be increased by the steady conversion of home after home and business after business to renewable energy.
Fourth, the NB government and NB Power could reset their policy and planning priorities around the creation of a smart grid that helps build up and serve a distributed energy network moving more and more to the link up and coordination of renewable energy generating sites.
These steps may not have the feel of a dramatic, “game changing” miracle, but they would help get NB in sync with the coming energy platform on which continued prosperity will more and more depend.
Keith Helmuth is a member of the Woodstock Sustainable Energy Group (SEG). SEG has just published From Oil Dependency to Renewable Energy: An Energy Transition Guidebook for the Woodstock Region; Assessment, Planning, Resources. Complimentary copies may be obtained by contacting [email protected]">[email protected]
